If you are anything like me, the best part of football season is playing fantasy football to accompany it.  While I am still very much in the hunt in my fantasy baseball leagues, fantasy football will take over full time in a few weeks, so now it is time to shift some of the focus into drafting and prepping for the next campaign.  Maybe you are the type of player that always drafts Tom Brady in the first round, or exclusively picks players from your favorite team. I have even met people who draft solely based on player names and ESPN fantasy ratings.

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The first thing to consider is whether or not you are in a PPR league.  In PPR leagues, you get an additional point for every reception a player gets, so a guy like Jarvis Landry, despite now playing on the Cleveland Browns, can reap huge rewards.  Landry led the league in receptions with 112 in 2017, netting an extra 112 points to everyone who had him on their team last season. Larry Fitzgerald also is good for PPR leagues, finishing his third straight campaign with 100+ receptions, but he may see a dip, with the Cardinals having the oft injured Sam Bradford at the helm, trying to complete just his second uninjured season in the last 5 years.  Then the burden would fall to rookie Josh Rosen, fresh off of playing his junior year at UCLA.

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However, despite the added point bonus to tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers like Jarvis Landry, running backs still dominate the PPR scoring estimates.  Seven of ESPN’s top 8 predicted scorers are running backs, including superstars like Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott. When using standard scoring on both ESPN and CBS Sports, a running back will get you 1 point for every 10 yards, and 6 points per touchdown, and since running backs usually are the only one on the team that runs the ball, with exceptions like the Saints having Kamara and Ingram, they do not have to split the points between other players like receivers often do.

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I for one have never been a proponent of drafting a QB in the first round, however, there is always that option. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady fight for top QB most years, and both should have strong seasons, despite Rodgers coming off of a collarbone injury.  While quarterbacks can be a strong draft option in non-PPR leagues, the point balancing of PPR lowers their value in those leagues. QBs have to gain more yardage for points, usually 25 yards per point, and they also get fewer points per touchdown with 4 as opposed to 6 for receiving or rushing.  If a QB throws 200 yards, 2 TDs and an interception, they would end up with 14 points, but a receiver having 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown nets you 17 points in a PPR league.

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As always, the general rule of thumb for drafting defenses and kickers is to wait until later rounds.  These are usually low scoring positions, unless Greg Zuerlein kicks 7 field goals again like he did versus the Cowboys last year.  Defenses are also a gamble, because all it takes is one good offense to deal a miserable -10 points on defense. The easiest schedule of the year belongs to the Houston Texans, and 10 of their 16 games are against the weaker half of the NFL in terms of offensive production, so they may be a good bet, especially if J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney can remain healthy.

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Just remember as a closing thought, there is no perfect strategy, there is no exact formula for draft day, and chances are someone you don’t expect will break out and an elite player will get injured or have a poor season.  The important thing is to go with your gut, have some fun, and enjoy the 2018 season, for better or for worse. Good luck with your season!